An estimated $124 trillion will change hands over the next two decades. Most families assume the hard part is the tax and the paperwork. The research says the hard part is the family.
Roughly $124 trillion is expected to pass from older Americans to their heirs and to charity through 2048 — the largest transfer of wealth in history. If you’ve done any estate planning, you’ve probably spent that energy on the machinery: the trust, the will, how things are titled, the tax exposure. That work matters. But it’s not where most transfers come apart.
The failure isn’t where you think
A 20-year study of more than 3,000 families by the Williams Group found that 70% of wealth transfers fail by the second generation, and 90% by the third. “Fail” here doesn’t mean a botched tax return. It means the wealth was dissipated, and often the family fractured along with it.
Here’s the part that should reframe how you think about all of this: the failures weren’t caused by bad professional advice. The researchers found that the attorneys, accountants, and advisors usually did their jobs well. The breakdown was inside the family. Roughly 60% of failures traced to a collapse of communication and trust, another 25% to heirs who simply weren’t prepared to handle what they received. Only a small fraction had anything to do with taxes, legal structures, or investments.
The tax was never the main threat
For most families, the thing they worry about most — estate tax — isn’t even in play. The federal estate and gift tax exemption now sits at $15 million per person, $30 million for a married couple, and the 2025 tax law made it permanent. The overwhelming majority of families will owe no federal estate tax at all.
That’s worth sitting with. The single issue most estate conversations orbit around is, for most people, already solved. Which means solving it does almost nothing to improve the odds that the transfer actually works. Families above the exemption have real tax planning to do, and it should be done with an estate attorney — but even then, the tax is the smaller half of the problem.
What actually preserves wealth across generations
The one-third of families who succeeded had things in common, and none of them were clever tax moves. They talked about it. They gave the money a purpose everyone understood. And they prepared their heirs gradually — letting them practice with responsibility, not just handing them a balance sheet at the worst possible moment.
A few things consistently separate the transfers that last:
The conversation actually happens. Most families avoid it — surveys find the majority of wealth-holders procrastinate the discussion, and only a minority have given their heirs any guidance at all. Silence isn’t protection; it leaves heirs to improvise under grief.
Heirs are prepared, not just named. Readiness is built over years — small responsibilities, purposeful gifts, plain financial education — long before any inheritance lands.
The surviving spouse is ready. A huge share of this transfer first passes between spouses, much of it to widows. Both partners knowing the full picture isn’t optional; it’s the first handoff, and it usually happens under the hardest circumstances.
Everyone knows what the money is for. Families that articulate a shared purpose for their wealth give the next generation something to steward, not just spend.
Where the right advice actually helps
This is the part that gets lost when planning is treated as a pile of documents. The will and the trust are the attorney’s domain. The tax exposure is the CPA’s. But preparing the family — convening the conversation, bringing heirs along over time, making sure the surviving spouse is equipped, and stitching the legal, tax, and human pieces into one coherent plan — needs a coordinator. That’s the work a planning-led relationship is built for, and it’s the work that actually moves the 70% number.
Where this leaves you
The documents protect the assets. They don’t prepare the people. And the data is clear that the people are where transfers succeed or fail. The good news buried in those grim statistics is that the dominant causes of failure — communication, preparation, shared purpose — are the ones most within your control. They just take time, and they take starting before you think you need to.
The money usually transfers fine. It’s the family that doesn’t.
An estate plan moves the assets. Preparing your family is what keeps them.
Key takeaways
• An estimated $124 trillion will transfer through 2048 — but a 20-year Williams Group study found 70% of transfers fail by the second generation and 90% by the third.
• The failures are overwhelmingly human: about 60% from breakdowns in family communication and trust, 25% from unprepared heirs, and only a small share from taxes, legal, or investment mistakes.
• The researchers found professional advice usually wasn’t the problem — the family transition was.
• With the estate exemption now $15M per person ($30M per couple) and permanent, most families won’t owe federal estate tax, so solving “the tax” doesn’t fix the transfer.
• What preserves wealth: having the conversation, preparing heirs gradually, equipping the surviving spouse, and agreeing on the purpose of the money.
• The documents are the attorney’s and CPA’s domain; preparing the family is the coordinating work a planning-led relationship is built for.
Common questions about preparing heirs
Isn’t a good trust enough to protect my family’s wealth?
A trust controls how assets move and can reduce taxes, but the research shows most transfers fail for reasons a trust can’t address — communication, trust, and heir preparation. The documents are necessary, not sufficient.
We’re below the estate tax exemption. Do we still need to plan?
Yes. Avoiding estate tax solves at most a small slice of why transfers fail. The larger work — preparing heirs and aligning the family — applies regardless of whether you’ll owe estate tax.
When should we start talking to our kids about it?
Earlier than feels comfortable. Readiness is built over years through gradual responsibility and education, not delivered in a single conversation late in life.
Do we have to tell our children exactly how much they’ll inherit?
Not necessarily. Many families start with values, purpose, and financial education before sharing specific numbers, and increase disclosure as heirs demonstrate readiness.
Why does the surviving spouse matter so much here?
A large portion of this wealth first transfers between spouses, often to a widow, and frequently to a partner who wasn’t the primary financial decision-maker. Making sure both spouses understand the full picture is the first and most fragile handoff.
Where does our advisor fit alongside our attorney and CPA?
The attorney handles the documents and the CPA the tax; a planning-led advisor coordinates them and leads the family-preparation work that the documents and tax strategy can’t cover on their own.
This article is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or estate-planning advice. Wealth transfer and estate decisions depend on your individual circumstances and applicable law, which can change; consult a qualified estate attorney and your CPA before acting.
Brent Rupnow is a Registered Representative with, and Securities and advisory services are offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Via Luce Capital is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL offer products and services using Via Luce Capital, and may also be employees of Via Luce Capital. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of Via Luce Capital.