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Long-Term Care: The Biggest Risk Most Plans Ignore

Long-Term Care: The Biggest Risk Most Plans Ignore

June 13, 2026

There’s a quiet phrase that captures the whole problem: if they don’t plan, you become the plan. When an aging parent needs long-term care and there’s no strategy in place, the cost — and often the caregiving itself — lands on the next generation. It’s one of the largest financial risks most families face, and one of the least planned for.

Long-term care has stopped being a rare, late-life possibility and become a near-certainty to plan around. Roughly 70% of adults who reach 65 will need some form of long-term care in their lifetimes. And the cost has climbed to a point that reshapes a balance sheet: nursing-home care now averages around $10,000 a month — roughly $119,000 a year for a shared room and $137,000 for a private one, with high-cost markets running far higher.

For the “sandwich generation” — adults in their 50s caring for aging parents while still supporting their own kids — this isn’t abstract. It’s a parent’s diagnosis, a sudden decision about care, and a bill that Medicare, it turns out, doesn’t pay. A few years of paid care can quietly erase decades of saving, on both generations’ balance sheets at once.

The good news: this is one of the most plannable risks there is — if it’s addressed before the crisis, not during it.

The number that surprises people

Start with the cost, because it’s bigger than most people expect.

The American Council on Aging puts the 2026 average nursing-home stay at roughly $119,000 a year for a shared room and $137,000 for a private room — and that’s an average; high-cost states run dramatically higher. Assisted living typically runs several thousand dollars a month, and in-home aides commonly bill around $30 an hour, which adds up fast for anything approaching full-time help.

Now layer on the likelihood: about 70% of those who reach 65 will need some kind of long-term care, whether at home, in assisted living, or in a nursing facility. A risk that common, at that price, isn’t a tail risk — it’s a line item waiting to happen.

Medicare won’t cover it

Here’s the misconception that does the most damage: most people assume Medicare will pay for long-term care. It won’t.

Medicare covers medical care — hospital stays, doctors, short stints of skilled nursing or rehab after a hospitalization. It does not cover custodial care — the ongoing help with daily living (bathing, dressing, eating, supervision) that makes up the bulk of long-term care. That’s the gap. The single most expensive form of care a family is likely to face is the one the program people count on doesn’t touch.

Medicaid is a spend-down, not a plan

Medicaid does cover long-term care — in fact it pays for the majority of nursing-home residents — but the way you qualify is the catch.

Medicaid has strict asset and income limits, which generally means spending down your savings to near-poverty levels before it kicks in. And it looks back five years at your finances: gifts, property transfers, and asset sales in that window are all scrutinized, and can trigger a penalty period of ineligibility. That last part matters enormously, because it means you can’t wait until a parent needs care and then quickly move assets to qualify — the planning has to happen years ahead to be effective. Treating Medicaid as a backstop you’ll figure out later is how families end up with the worst of both: depleted savings and no flexibility.

The four ways to fund it

There are really only a handful of ways to cover long-term care, and the right mix depends on the family:

•         Self-fund. Earmark a portion of the portfolio to absorb the cost. Workable for some affluent families — but only if it’s a deliberate decision with the math done, not a default.

•         Traditional long-term care insurance. Purpose-built coverage, generally bought in your 50s or early 60s when you’re still healthy enough to qualify and premiums are lower. It has trade-offs worth understanding.

•         Hybrid policies. Life insurance or annuities with a long-term care rider, which pay a benefit for care if you need it and a death benefit if you don’t — addressing the “what if I pay in and never use it” objection.

•         Medicaid, with advance planning. For some families, structured well ahead of time and with an elder-law attorney, Medicaid is part of the plan rather than a last resort.

None of these is right for everyone, and this isn’t the place to choose among them — that’s a conversation to have with your advisor and, where relevant, an elder-law attorney. The point is that doing nothing is itself a choice, and usually the most expensive one.

It’s a two-generation conversation

What makes long-term care distinct from most planning topics is that it spans two generations at once.

If you’re in the sandwich generation, there are really two plans to think about: your parents’ and your own. For your parents, the questions are practical and time-sensitive — do they have updated powers of attorney and healthcare directives, is there a plan to pay for care, and have those documents kept up with the law? For yourself, it’s about deciding how you’ll fund your own future care so your children don’t inherit the problem you may be navigating right now. Having these conversations early — awkward as they are — is what prevents a health crisis from becoming a financial one that ripples across three generations.

The pattern

Long-term care is the risk hiding in plain sight: extremely likely, extremely expensive, and routinely left out of the plan because no one wants to think about it. The damage isn’t usually a market crash or a tax bill — it’s a few years of care that quietly drains an estate that took a lifetime to build.

That’s the through-line again. The biggest threats to a family’s wealth are rarely the ones that make headlines; they’re the ordinary, predictable ones nobody planned for. Long-term care isn’t a medical question or an insurance question in isolation — it’s a planning question, and the families who handle it well are the ones who answered it long before it was urgent.

A few years of care can erase decades of saving. The plan isn’t insurance, or self-funding, or Medicaid — the plan is deciding which, before you need it.

None of this is meant to alarm — it’s meant to make the case for handling a predictable risk on your own terms. Long-term care is one of the few large financial exposures you can genuinely prepare for, with options that mostly require deciding early. Done ahead of time, it protects two things at once: your independence, and the people who would otherwise have to become your plan. The work is having the conversation while it’s still a choice.

The plan is the residue. The planning is the work.

Key takeaways

•         About 70% of adults who reach 65 will need some form of long-term care, and the cost is high — nursing-home care now averages roughly $119,000–$137,000 a year, with high-cost markets far higher.

•         Medicare does not cover long-term custodial care — only limited, medically necessary skilled care — which is the most common and costly misconception.

•         Medicaid covers long-term care but requires spending down to near-poverty asset levels and has a five-year look-back, so it only works as a strategy if planned years in advance.

•         There are roughly four ways to fund care: self-funding, traditional long-term care insurance, hybrid life/annuity policies with a care rider, and Medicaid with advance planning.

•         Long-term care is a two-generation issue for the sandwich generation — your parents’ plan (and their powers of attorney and healthcare directives) and your own.

•         It’s one of the most plannable major risks there is, but only if addressed before a health crisis rather than during one.

Common questions about long-term care planning

Does Medicare cover long-term care?

No. Medicare covers medical and limited skilled care, not the ongoing custodial care (help with daily living) that makes up most long-term care.

How much does long-term care cost?

In 2026, nursing-home care averages roughly $119,000 a year for a shared room and $137,000 for a private room, with assisted living and in-home care costing less but still substantial. High-cost areas run far higher.

Won’t Medicaid pay for it?

Medicaid does cover long-term care, but only after you spend down to near-poverty asset and income levels, and it looks back five years at your finances — so it requires planning well in advance.

When should I buy long-term care insurance?

Traditional coverage is generally bought in your 50s or early 60s, while you’re healthy enough to qualify and premiums are lower. Hybrid life/annuity policies are another option. The right choice depends on your situation.

What is the “sandwich generation” problem?

It’s being caught caring for aging parents while still supporting your own children — often bearing both the financial cost and the caregiving load when a parent hasn’t planned for care.

What should I do first?

Start with the conversations and the documents: make sure aging parents have updated powers of attorney and healthcare directives and a plan to pay for care, and decide how you’ll fund your own. An advisor and, where relevant, an elder-law attorney can help.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as tax, legal, insurance, or financial planning advice, and is not a recommendation of any insurance product or strategy. Long-term care costs, insurance options, and Medicaid rules vary by state and individual circumstances and change over time. Consult your financial advisor, a licensed insurance professional, and — for Medicaid and estate questions — a qualified elder-law attorney about your specific situation.

Brent Rupnow is a Registered Representative with, and Securities and advisory services are offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Via Luce Capital is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL offer products and services using Via Luce Capital, and may also be employees of Via Luce Capital. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of Via Luce Capital.